• Home
  • About
  • Contact
  • Social Media
  • facebook
  • twitter
  • flickr
  • blogger
  • youtube

blog-logo

  • Home
  • Pan-Armenian News
  • UAE Armenians
  • Hrach Kalsahakian
  • Հայերեն բաժին
  • القسم العربي
  • Archives
    • News
    • Articles
    • Directory

Countdown to the next war over Artsakh

January 29, 2010
A+ A-
Email Print
Countdown to the next war over Artsakh

David Boyajian


By David Boyajian


Meeting at the White House with a group of Armenian Americans, the chief U.S. negotiator for the OSCE peace talks on Artsakh (Karabagh) announced that the United States would be satisfied if a peace agreement were to last for only 10 years.


The official was Joseph A. Presel.  It was 1996, and Bill Clinton was president. I happened to be at that meeting.


With Presel were Richard Morningstar, U.S. special envoy to the newly independent states of the Caucasus, Caspian, and Central Asia, Nancy Soderberg of the National Security Council, and others.  A key U.S. objective, Soderberg declared, was to pump the region?s oil and gas resources west through U.S. sponsored pipelines.


While commenting on the OSCE negotiations, Presel made an astonishing remark, which I paraphrase: “Even if a peace agreement between Armenians and Azerbaijan over Karabagh were to last just 10 years, that would be sufficient.”


Did Presel mean that Washington would risk a quick fix for Artsakh even if it were likely to result in a medium-term renewal of violence?  I believe so, and the reasons are clear.


The Armenian corridor


Like Georgia, Armenia sits in a strategic position between energy-rich Azerbaijan (and the Caspian Sea) and NATO member Turkey.


An Artsakh peace accord would lead Azerbaijan, and probably Turkey, to reopen their borders with Armenia.  That, the U.S. State Department hopes, would eventually result in Armenia?s serving American interests as a land, air, and gas and oil pipeline corridor between Azerbaijan and Turkey.


None of that will happen without an Artsakh peace accord. But it need last just long enough for the U.S. to gain an economic and political foothold in Armenia.  Such a foothold would take several years, which explains Presel?s 10-year timeframe.


Why did Presel, an experienced diplomat who had served in Turkey and Russia and was soon to be the ambassador to Uzbekistan, make such a damning disclosure about State Department strategy?


I don?t know.  It was early in the morning, and Presel looked very tired.  Perhaps fatigue caused him to let his guard down.


With Presel?s 10-year timeframe in mind, consider the OSCE peace plan for Artsakh that Washington, Paris, and Moscow have proposed.


Recipe for disaster


The plan would, for instance, allow thousands of Azeris to resettle in Artsakh.  Even Armenia has apparently fallen for this pseudo-humanitarian proposal.


Azerbaijan will ensure that the resettlers include plenty of spies, saboteurs, and provocateurs.  Their job?  To sow discord over property rights, school curricula, military service, alleged discrimination, and any other pretext they can dream up.  The resulting disorder or civil war would give the OSCE and Azerbaijan an excuse to cancel the referendum that would supposedly decide Artsakh?s final legal status.


Claiming that Armenians were brutalizing its kin, Azerbaijan – armed with advanced weapons bought with billions in oil and gas revenue – could well launch a massive assault. Azerbaijan has always preferred reconquest over peace.


Even if the resettled Azeris lived peacefully, their higher birth rate would ensure their eventually outnumbering Armenians. 


Under either scenario, Armenians could lose Artsakh permanently. 


Major power plays


Would the United States (and Europe) really be unconcerned if an Artsakh peace fell apart after 10 years or so?  It depends.


If western-bound pipelines passed through Armenia, or if a new war jeopardized the existing Azeri pipelines that lie just north of Artsakh, Washington and Europe would oppose a new war by Azerbaijan.  It?s unclear, however, that they would have sufficient leverage over Baku to enforce their will.


Conversely, if their interests were not threatened, the U.S. and Europe might not particularly care if Azerbaijan reconquered Artsakh.   Russia might actually welcome a new war by Azerbaijan if it concluded that an Armenian counterattack would damage western-bound pipelines.


The major powers could prove to be greater enemies of Artsakh than is Azerbaijan.


Treachery and betrayal


Would Armenia ever agree to a deeply flawed peace plan for Artsakh designed by the U.S., France, Europe, and Russia, all of whom have historically lied to and betrayed Armenians?  Probably.


Inexplicably, Armenian governments have rarely, if ever, publicly reminded these countries of their treachery.  Brought up in the denationalized Soviet educational system, Armenian leaders may be largely unaware of the details of that treachery.


Moreover, Armenia?s recent accord with Turkey – the so-called ?protocols? which tend to cast aside Armenian historical rights and may make the factuality of the genocide debatable – demonstrates that its leaders are poor negotiators and more concerned with lining their pockets than heeding the views of their people.


State Department doubletalk


Despite Presel?s eye-opening revelation, unintentional or otherwise, about a short-term fix for Artsakh, Armenians should know that he also reflects the State Department?s doubletalk about the Armenian genocide.


At the White House, Presel referred directly to the Armenian genocide, saying, “I don?t know why Turkey doesn?t just acknowledge it.”  The statement was strangely disingenuous.  Presel had, after all, served in Turkey and certainly knew of Ankara?s fear that a genocide acknowledgment could advance long-standing Armenian claims to territory and reparations.


Fast forward to several years ago.  Presel was on a panel that discussed Armenian – Turkish relations.  He reportedly endorsed Turkey?s denialist stance that the 1915 killings were not genocide but rather were caused by Armenian rebellions.


Regardless, Armenians must take Presel?s “10-year” warning seriously.  There is no reason to believe that the State Department?s policy is any different now than when he said it.


When a “peace” agreement on Artsakh is signed, start counting.
          
David Boyajian is a freelance writer. Many of his articles and interviews are archived on Armeniapedia.org.


Published in Azad-Hye with the consent of the writer.


 

author-avatar

Posted by Azad-Hye

Like to share?

Social Media

  • facebook
  • twitter
  • flickr
  • blogger
  • youtube
Newer PostKessab Ousoumnasirats celebrates centennial
Older PostGlobalized Aleppo

POPULAR

item-thumbnail

Vardavar (water pouring) international festival in Armenia gains popularity

July 17, 2015
item-thumbnail

Rebecca Malikian’s novel “The Caravan of Death”

July 10, 2015
item-thumbnail

Erebouni pen launched in Dubai and other cities

April 12, 2015
item-thumbnail

Discrete Video Modeling for children with special needs in Armenia

February 23, 2016
item-thumbnail

Nana Aramyan’s art and her exceptional inspiration

September 12, 2015

LATEST

item-thumbnail

تواصل تركيا سياستها التقليدية بتبرير الإبادة الأرمنية والتهديد

August 11, 2020
item-thumbnail

Ptit: Armenian language website for children and teenagers

June 20, 2020
item-thumbnail

Vartine Ohanian Minister of Youth and Sports in the New Lebanese Government

January 22, 2020
item-thumbnail

Հայաստանի լեռնահարստացման կոմբինատը՝ «Չաարատ Կապան» ՓԲԸ-ն պատրաստվում է մեծամաշտաբ ծրագիր իրականացնել

January 21, 2020
item-thumbnail

Traditional Armenian Pilgrimage in Chinsurah

January 15, 2020

COMMENTS

Azad-Hye on In memory of AUB Medical Alumni who died during the First World War
Azad-Hye on Kessab Ousoumnasirats celebrates centennial
Lawrence Danny CPA on Kessab Ousoumnasirats celebrates centennial
Stephensmith on Pizza making vending machine invented by Puzant Khachadourian
ALEXANIAN on Astghik Voskerchyan: Every element in my environment has a role in my creations

Categories

  • Applications
  • Chinese Armenians
  • Cyprus Armenians
  • Egyptian Armenians
  • Ethiopian Armenians
  • European Armenians
  • Hrach Kalsahakian
  • Indian Armenians
  • Interviews
  • Iraqi Armenians
  • Lebanese Armenians
  • Music
  • Pan-Armenian News
    • Art
    • Books
    • Business
    • Celebrations
    • Courses and Camps
    • Documentaries
    • Education
    • Energy
    • Festivals
    • Genocide
    • History
    • Interviews
    • Language
    • Poetry
    • Politics
    • Tourism
  • Religion
  • Syrian Armenians
  • Turkish Armenians
  • UAE Armenians
  • Websites
  • Հայերեն բաժին
  • القسم العربي

CUSTOM LINKS

  • Home
  • About
  • Contact
  • Social Media

RANDOM POSTS

item-thumbnail

Ներգաղթի նոր պայմաններ

item-thumbnail

Սփիւռքահայ կրթական մշակ հայրս (Յակոբ Սահակեան). Հրաչ Քալսահակեան

item-thumbnail

Հայաստանի 8 հրաշալիքները. ԵՐԿՐՈՐԴԸ` «ՏաԹևեր» ճոպանուղին

TAG CLOUD

Armenian Art Armenian Catholics Armenian Christmas Armenian Costumes Armenian Genocide Armenian Songs Armenian Velvet Revolution Azad-Hye Celebrations Cyprus Armenians Daniel Varoujan Hejinian Diaspora Armenians Education Emma Kant Emma Karapetyan Ethiopian Armenians Garni Geghard Genocide Goris Greece Hidden Armenians History Iraqi Armenians Kessab Kessabtzis Krikor Jabotian Language Lebanese Armenians Meri Martirosyan Music Music Application Nana Aramyan Nikol Pashinyan Norway Ottoman Empire Paris Speech Therapy Syrian Armenians Syunik Turkey Turkish Armenians UAE Armenians Vardavar Western Armenia

Azad-Hye on FLICKER

© 2021 Azad-Hye . Designed by Wpinhands
Scroll